Falcons still trying to solve the Desmond Ridder fourth-quarter riddle -

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons are as confused as anyone about why Desmond Ridder turns into a different quarterback in the fourth quarter.

“That’s what we’re all trying to capture,” coach Arthur Smith said this week as his team prepared to face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. “We’ve looked at everything.”

The numbers are stark. In the first three quarters of games, Ridder is 35th in the NFL in expected points added per attempt (minus-.12), 35th in yards per attempt (6) and 31st in passer rating (75.1). In the fourth quarter, he is second in EPA per attempt (.35), third in yards per attempt (10.1) and seventh in passer rating (seventh). In the first three quarters, he has six touchdowns and seven interceptions. In the fourth: three touchdowns and two interceptions.

The fourth quarter “is a very good positive, but it’s capturing that for quarters one, two and three. We have to look at it all,” Smith said. “It’d be one thing if there was nothing to have hope about. There are things that you think are pretty damn good.”

Ridder has always considered himself a player who gets better as the game goes on, he said, but he didn’t have an explanation for the difference beyond that either.

“As little kids, every single one of us, you were outside shooting basketball or dropping back, you were, ‘three… two … ’ and trying to make that last-second play,” he said. “It’s in all of us to (want to) go out there and finish.”

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“Obviously, I’ve had my ups and downs, I’ve been able to go out there and play good games and then there’s one or two plays each game where something goes wrong or there is a mistake,” the quarterback said. “Then it’s about how do you respond. I feel like every time I have responded the right way.”

Atlanta’s offense has mirrored Ridder’s boom-or-bust trajectory. The Falcons are one of six NFL teams with at least five games of more than 400 yards of offense, but they are 24th in scoring (19.31 ppg) largely because of critical errors.

Defensive letdowns

While Atlanta’s inconsistent offense has been the focus of most of the fans’ frustration, the usually consistent defense has let the Falcons down of late. In each of the Falcons’ last three losses — Minnesota in Week 9, Arizona in Week 10 and Tampa Bay last week — the defense has surrendered a game-winning drive that went at least 70 yards, resulting in the winning points being scored in the final 31 seconds of the game.

The issue is confidence, assistant head coach for defense Jerry Gray said.

“I don’t think it’s anything else,” Gray said. “If you play well for 58 minutes, you should be able to do it for the next two minutes.”

That confidence becomes harder and harder to achieve each time the Falcons give up a game-winning drive, Gray conceded.

“You start self-doubting, but then other guys on the football field have to say, ‘Hey, you’ve got to get out of that,’” he said. “There are certain things we are really good at, and there are little, bitty things that are holding you back from being really good. That’s one of the things. When you get out there, the players have to band together and say, ‘How are we going to win the football game?’”

The Falcons rank fifth in the NFL in defensive success rate (62.4 percent), 10th in yards per play allowed (5.0) and 11th in yards per game allowed (313.9).

Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has been on the run more as he tries to avoid getting sacked. (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)

Young getting old quickly in Carolina

The Falcons believe Panthers rookie quarterback Bryce Young is a different player than the one they faced in the season opener. Different may not necessarily mean better, though.

“He’s taking off running a lot more,” Gray said. “He’s not trying to sit in the pocket and take those hits.”

Young, the No. 1 pick in April, has been sacked 48 times, second most among NFL quarterbacks behind Washington’s Sam Howell. Young is 39th in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.3), 37th in completion percentage (58.5) and 37th in passer rating (70.9) among quarterbacks with more than 100 pass attempts this season. His passing EPA per dropback (minus-.22) is the fourth worst in the last 10 years among quarterbacks who have played at least 10 games in a season.

“It’s not all on him,” Smith said. “You need a lot to be successful at quarterback. It is a team sport. You’re talking about organizationally and the team around you, too. He’s a very talented player. Everybody in the country saw that when he was coming out.”

Young was 20-for-38 for 146 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in his first meeting with the Falcons.

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London moving the sticks

Coming off a career-high 172 receiving yards against Tampa Bay, second-year wide receiver Drake London is fifth in the NFL in percentage of receptions that have gone for a first down or touchdown (69.6 percent). London is 27th in the league with 745 receiving yards this season.

“What we loved about Drake is he fits what we’re trying to embody here,” Smith said. “His habits are old school, and I mean that in a good way.”

London, who now has three 100-yard receiving games in his career, also took more of a leadership role in the wide receivers room during veteran Mack Hollins’ injury absence.

“Early on, we had Mack in that room, and he was the one everybody looked to for energy. Drake has kind of become that guy,” Ridder said. “He’s just done a tremendous job because when he first got here he was kind of that quiet California kid, but now he is stepping in the huddle and picking guys up. You hear his voice out there.”

The playoff picture

The Falcons currently have a 34 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to The New York Times’ playoff prediction simulator. A win Sunday would move them up to 49 percent, and surprisingly, a Tampa Bay loss on Sunday to Green Bay wouldn’t greatly affect that number. If Atlanta wins and the Bucs lose, the Falcons’ playoff percentage will only increase to 50 percent, according to the simulator. However, Atlanta would retake control of its playoff destiny in that second scenario.

Scoreboard watching “is kind of wasted energy,” Smith said. “You’re aware of the situation, but you start worrying about things outside of your control and that’s not going to be beneficial for you at all. It just takes away from your focus.”

Smith is hopeful that the stakes for the Falcons this weekend will outweigh any chance they overlook the reeling Panthers (1-12).

“If you let that creep in …” Smith said. “Just look at this last weekend’s games, that’s life in the NFL. That’s pro football. Carolina has been in a lot of close games. This’ll be a challenge just like they all are.”

He also pointed out that Carolina is fourth in the NFL in yards allowed (298.4).

“This is a very, very good defense,” he said. “The numbers show that. This isn’t me trying to hype up anything. It’s reality.”

(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

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